Blue Jays' draft pick Diedrick proving his worth

Baseball Betting Lines

08/09/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - About the only thing bigger than Philip Diedrick's heart is his smile.

Diedrick's infectious grin and mild-mannered approach to life are attributes that serve him well in life and on the diamond.

If only pitchers saw the softer side of him.

The Philip Diedrick that pitchers see is much more relentless, a menacing left-handed power hitter with an imposing presence at the plate whose preference is to make pitchers pay on his terms.

Never was that more apparent than last month at the 2010 International Baseball Federation World Junior Baseball Championship in Thunder Bay, Ont., when Diedrick's first-inning heroics held up as the difference for Canada against reigning and two-time defending champion South Korea.

A day after losing to Cuba in a heart-breaking 3-0 loss in front of a sellout crowd, Diedrick picked his team up in the biggest way.

South Korea, desperate not to get in a hole early to a team it was supposed to beat, brought in a left-handed pitcher just two batters into the game with left-handed hitters waiting on deck.

As Diedrick described it, "They were trying to work the percentages against us."

Good thing Diedrick's a better baseball player than he is a mathematician.

Down 2-1 in the count with the bases loaded and two outs, Canada's designated hitter watched a fastball settle into the middle of the plate for a strike as if to grant it immunity for flying over restricted air space. His odds just got worse.

But Diedrick wasn't so kind to the next pitch or the law of percentages, drilling it the other way over the left field fence to give Canada a 4-0 lead they would ultimately hold onto in a 5-4 edging of the gold-medal favorite Koreans.

"It was the biggest game of my career so far," he said of the grand slam. "It felt amazing."

While most players, especially ones his age, would have buckled under the pressure of playing for their home country in front of a sellout crowd with family cheering them on from their seats behind home plate, Diedrick relished the opportunity.

"It was one of the best moments of my life knowing that I got the chance to represent my country," said Diedrick, recalling the day he learned he was selected to the national team. "One day I can be in the same sentence as Sidney Crosby or Justin Morneau, and all those other guys who get to represent their country. Not just at the senior level, but at the junior level."

As for being in the same sentence as Morneau, he concedes it's a tall order. Despite being selected in the 45th round by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2010 MLB Draft, the 6-1, 202-pound outfielder has yet to be offered a contract by the big league club.

In the meantime, he knows it's all about that hard work and preparation his mother preached to him as a child.

"I always just tried to do my best to make my mom proud. And my grandma, the value she instilled in my mom, and the values that my mom instills in me, helps me to be who I am."

These days being him, isn't so bad.

When asked if he recalls the day he found out he was drafted by a Major League Baseball team, Diedrick flashed his trademark smile.

"I was actually staying at home following it on the Internet and then when they called my name, I was in shock," he said. "My coach called me, and then I was like, 'Okay, it really happened.' It was amazing."

If Diedrick isn't signed by the mid-August deadline, he'll attend Bossier Parish College in Louisiana this fall, where he'll get a chance to show scouts and evaluators south of the border the type of raw power and plate presence he turned heads with at the Worlds.

"He's going to be a good hitter going forward," said Greg Hamilton, head coach and director of Baseball Canada's national teams. "He's a big strong kid and he's not a one-dimensional kind of guy. He will go the other way a little bit for you as well."

"I thought he had a real nice tournament."

Nice to Canada, brutally unforgiving to opposing teams.

Diedrick finished the tournament 14-for-31 (.452) with a team-leading 10 RBI in eight games, garnering a nod as IBAF first-team designated hitter all-star for his accomplishments.

But the Ajax, Ont. native's rise to success on the diamond is relatively new to him.

He said it wasn't until a breakout performance at last year's Canada Cup - a collection of the country's best seventeen and eighteen-year-olds under one national tournament - that he caught the attention of Hamilton, who was in the process of assembling the juniors' summer tour roster.

"Since then, we went to Disney [Team Canada's spring training facility] two times. I went to Dominican Republic, and I was just getting better and better and kept getting the call back from Greg saying, 'Come on other trips.'

A few home runs later and Diedrick was joining the junior national team and playing against the best 18-and-under baseball players in the world.

"It lets you know where you compare on a world stage," said Diedrick. "In Canada, you know you're one of the top 20 players and then when you go and play against the U.S. or other countries, you can see where you stack up."

For someone who's been playing for "five or six years now," Diedrick stacks up pretty good against a plethora of talent destined for the major leagues.

He smiles when asked what the response has been from his friends since his dissension through the ranks of amateur baseball.

"They always just ask me when are the season tickets coming," he said with a laugh. "I just tell them 'In time, I will get there.'"

His mother told him to "always finish what you start." Now that he has the directions to get there, it's all about executing.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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