Dodge faces win-or-else season at North Texas

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/04/2010 -

DENTON, Texas (AP) -Todd Dodge is no longer the hot shot high school coach hired to energize the North Texas football program.

After 31 losses in three years, he's just trying to hang on to his job and avoid becoming another case study in why it's so rare for a coach to be plucked from the preps and put in charge of a major college team.

The athletic director who grabbed Dodge after he went 79-1 in five years at Southlake Carroll High School expects a winning season, which means at least seven victories when Dodge has just five in his college career.

Clemson, nearly a four-touchdown favorite Saturday in the season opener, inadvertently illustrated how far Dodge has fallen, referring to him as ``Tom Dodge'' in pregame notes.

``It's been very disappointing at times, with not being where I thought we'd be,'' Dodge said. ``We've taken a lot of black eyes and bloody noses.''

Dodge's first two years were tough and tougher, marked by routine blowouts on the field and sticky issues off it. Players kicked off the 2007 team accused him and his staff of racial bias, although the coaches were cleared by administrators. A year later, Dodge suspected some players were using drugs and tested every one of them during the season. Fifteen came back positive.

Perhaps the biggest setback came next, when two-year starting quarterback Giovanni Vizza left the team after the 2008 season. Not only was it critical to lose experience at the most important position in a four-receiver spread offense, but Dodge was hearing from others that Vizza figured the coach would start his son, then-redshirt freshman Riley Dodge.

``I recruited my son because he was the best possible option,'' Dodge said. ``But that didn't mean he was going to start over a guy that started for two years. When you go 1-11, everybody on the football team has to compete. But still, I'd invested 20 starts in a guy.''

With Vizza gone, Riley Dodge started 10 games, but the results were about the same. Now the coach's son - who won a state title in his dad's last high school season - isn't a full-time quarterback thanks to shoulder and arm injuries. He is listed as a receiver and just hoping to contribute for the next three years as a utility guy on offense.

``It's just different going from winning all the time to kind of struggling,'' Riley Dodge said. ``It builds a lot of character. It has humbled me and my dad a little bit.''

Nathan Tune is the quarterback now. The fifth-year senior with just two career starts holds the keys to a pass-happy offense that will go a long way toward determining whether Dodge stays or becomes Gerry Faust, the last coach who went straight from the prep ranks to the highest level of college football. Notre Dame fired him in 1985 after five mediocre seasons.

Defense will have to play a role, too. North Texas was last in the nation in scoring defense Dodge's first two seasons, another setback for him because he was criticized for bringing too many high school coaches with him, including his defensive coordinator. That coach was fired after the first season when the Mean Green gave up more than 70 points twice and 66 in another game.

All four former Carroll assistants are gone, leaving Dodge surrounded by assistants with more much college experience.

``We need a very experienced staff that has been at this level and understands some of the things at this level,'' athletic director Rick Villarreal said. ``And I think today Todd understands more about this level. I don't think he could have imagined that when he first took the job.''

Dodge was hired to help create a buzz and complete a push for a new stadium. The stadium part of the plan succeeded, but the buzz among alumni has been replaced by doubt. There's a chance Dodge won't be around when the new stadium opens next year.

Such circumstances are nothing new to Dodge, the former Texas quarterback who endured stinging criticism when he led the Longhorns in the 1980s. He knows what his athletic director expects, and he's ``fine with it.''

``The tough times here have not gotten in the way of me believing in how I can lead a football team and what our football team can do,'' Dodge said. ``When my time is over with, there won't be any excuses. Would I have done things differently? Sure.''

The victory count isn't likely to start against Clemson, but the Tigers should be the toughest opponent on the schedule. While last year's 2-10 record was the second in three years under Dodge, the Mean Green were much more competitive. Six of the losses were by a touchdown or less.

North Texas also has hope of a strong running game to complement Dodge's pass-first scheme. Lance Dunbar finished among the national leaders last year with 1,378 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing in just eight starts. Six of the team's top eight defenders return, including Craig Robertson, the leading tackler.

``Are we going to go 12-0? No. I don't think so,'' Dodge said. ``But we do have the potential to win seven or eight ball games. We're in a window of the 2010-11 seasons where we can really flip this thing and not look back.''

If not, it's probably back to high schools for Dodge.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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