First-place Phils close out hard-fought set with Marlins

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't easy, but the Philadelphia Phillies now lead the National League East for the first time since late May.

Cole Hamels will try to keep his squad there as he aims for a third straight victory in the finale of a four-game series with the Florida Marlins tonight at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies posted an 8-7 victory over the Marlins last night, and coupled with a Braves loss to Pittsburgh, moved a half-game past Atlanta for the top spot in the division. Philadelphia hadn't owned sole possession of first place since May 30.

Philadelphia trailed Atlanta by seven games for that spot on July 21, but have gone an MLB-leading 32-14 since.

"It's always good to be in first place. That's the only way to live," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said.

The Phillies built a 7-4 advantage over the Marlins thanks in part to homers from Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino and Ryan Howard, but a sloppy top of the eighth inning allowed the Marlins to tie things.

However, Victorino singled to start the home half of the eighth, stole second and then scored on Placido Polanco's single with two outs.

Ryan Madson, who allowed the game-tying run to score on a wild pitch in the eighth, locked down the final three outs for the win, the Phillies' seventh in nine games.

Mike Stanton led off Florida's three-run eighth with a homer, his third in as many games, while Brad Davis made it a one-run game when he scored on Jayson Werth's throwing error. Emilio Bonifacio later tied things on Madson's wild pitch after previously getting to third on a balk.

Florida has lost two straight since winning five of six.

"We came back. They came back. It was one of those games," Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez said.

Hamels comes into this start on a bit of a roll. The 26-year-old has won back- to-back starts and thrown 15 scoreless innings since an 0-3 stretch over his previous eight starts that featured a solid 2.83 ERA.

Hamels hurled eight innings of four-hit ball to beat San Diego on Aug. 29, then limited Milwaukee to three hits and three walks over seven frames on Friday, striking out seven to improve to 9-10 with a 3.18 ERA this year.

The southpaw, who has allowed one run or fewer in seven of his last 11 starts, lost his only previous start this year versus the Marlins, back on April 18, despite allowing just two runs over eight innings. He is 2-7 with a 4.26 ERA lifetime versus them.

The Marlins go with lefty Andrew Miller, who has allowed one run or less in three of his four outings this year, including two starts. He beat the Braves on Friday, holding them to just a run on seven hits and three walks over five innings while striking out six.

The 25-year-old picked up his first win since July 4, 2009 and is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA this year. He is 0-3 with a 5.16 ERA in 10 career games versus the Phillies, including five starts.

The Phillies have won five of their last six over the Marlins and lead the season series 9-5.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.