Jays try to keep slim postseason hopes alive in St. Pete

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays still have a mathematical shot at the playoffs and will open a three-game series against the AL East-rival Tampa Bay Devil Rays at Tropicana Field.

Toronto is 6 1/2 games off the wild card lead and has won four of six and eight of the last 13 games. In Wednesday's finale of a three-game series against Boston at Fenway Park, the Jays salvaged the set with a 6-4 victory as Vernon Wells belted a two-run homer in the ninth inning to lead the way.

Wells finished with three hits and two runs scored, while Troy Glaus also homered for the Blue Jays. Reliever Jeremy Accardo earned the win by recording the final five outs and starter Shaun Marcum allowed two runs and five hits with three walks and a pair of strikeouts in five innings.

Blue Jays starter Dustin McGowan will shoot for an encore performance when he takes the hill tonight. McGowan hurled eight strong innings of one-run ball in a 2-1 victory over Seattle on September 1.

McGowan, who is 9-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 22 starts this season, had been 0-3 in four starts before his solid outing against the Mariners. The righty is 0-0 with a 3.95 earned run average in three career games (two starts) against the Devil Rays.

Tampa Bay has been playing well as of late, winning two of three games against the Baltimore Orioles. In Wednesday's 17-2 pounding of the O's in the series finale at the Trop, Carlos Pena belted a pair of home runs, including a grand slam, and finished with a franchise-record seven RBI.

Delmon Young hit a three-run homer, while Brendan Harris and Jonny Gomes clubbed solo shots for the Devil Rays, who had a season-high 22 hits and won for the seventh time in nine games.

Young finished with four RBI for the Devil Rays, who set a couple of records and fell shy of two others. Their 40 total bases and 15-run margin of victory are new records. Their high-water mark for runs in a game is 19, last accomplished July 29, 2006 at Yankee Stadium. The team record for hits is 24, at Toronto on June 24, 2004.

Pena has 37 homers this season and eclipsed Paul Sorrento's previous team record of six RBI at Cleveland on May 3, 1998. Pena has a career-best 105 RBI this year. Starter Andy Sonnanstine gave up nine hits and two runs over six innings to win his third consecutive start.

Taking the ball for the D-Rays tonight will be Edwin Jackson, who is 4-13 with a 5.78 ERA in 27 games (26 starts) this season. Jackson lost his last outing on September 1 in a 9-6 loss at Yankee Stadium, giving up seven runs -- six earned -- in 3 1/3 frames.

In four career games (three starts) against Toronto, the right-handed Jackson owns an 0-1 record with a 3.26 earned run average.

The 2007 season series between Toronto and Tampa Bay is tied at six wins apiece. The Jays are 29-20 in the last 49 matchups with the Devil Rays.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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