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09/07/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geez, a couple of weeks ago it looked as if we were going to have a pretty exciting September with all the divisions, as well as the wild cards, up for grabs. Now it appears all the playoff teams in the American League are set, while in the NL there are just two divisions and maybe the wild card in play.
After sweeping the Mets in a four-game series last week at home, it appeared the Phillies were ready to make a serious September run. They are a weird team, though. Once they have any pressure on them, they falter. It has been going on for years and it looks like it has happened once again.
Since that thrilling ninth inning win over the Mets on August 30, which pulled Philadelphia within two games of the NL East lead, the Phils have dropped four of six and now find themselves five games back in the division after a crushing, 9-8, ninth inning loss to the Atlanta Braves on Wednesday.
For those of you that did not see it, the Phillies' bullpen, which has been an Achilles' heel all season, gave up seven runs over the final two innings to seal their fate. And it wasn't the Geoff Gearys and Clay Condreys doing the damage, it was Tom Gordon and Brett Myers.
I have said it before. With that pitching staff, it was a shock they hung around this long. Now, barring an unforeseen collapse, the Mets should be well on their way to a second straight division title.
The Phils still have a shot at the wild card, but that loss on Wednesday is the type that could derail a season. I don't see how they come back from that. Plus, they are still three games back of the San Diego Padres.
I am thinking the Phils are done. Fans in Philly, though, can take solace in the fact that I declared the Milwaukee Brewers dead last week and they are right back in the mix of the NL Central, tied with the Chicago Cubs atop the division.
It looks as if I may have been a bit premature in throwing the dirt on the grave of the Brewers. After losing two of three to the Cubs, Ned Yost's crew has responded with wins in five of their last six games.
I should have known better than to give the Cubs the division. They have been disappointing their fans for over 100 years. Why should this season be any different?
By the way, I still think the Cardinals have no shot, despite the fact they are only a game back of the leaders. And for all of you out there who thought Mark Mulder was going to be the answer to that pitiful rotation down the stretch, that's not happening. Mulder's line on Wednesday: 4 IP, 6 runs, 8 hits. Thanks for nothing.
While the NL Central is tight, the best playoff race down the stretch will be in the NL West. Not because it is going to be any closer than the Central, but because, unlike the Central, there will be some decent teams involved.
Arizona and San Diego have traded the top spot back-and-forth the last week, and as I write this the upstart Diamondbacks hold a game edge on the Padres, with the Los Angeles Dodgers lurking 3 1/2 games behind the leader.
Then only drawback to that race is that it may lose some juice because whatever team winds up finishing second out there will more than likely already be in the playoffs thanks to the wild card.
It is pointless to even elaborate on the AL playoff picture at this point. Boston, Cleveland and the Angels will be the division winners, with the Yankees winning the wild card. Game over. See you in October.
DEBATE OF THE WEEK
Someone asked me the other day which trio I would rather have on my team: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes, David Wright and Carlos Beltran?
It is tough. Utley is probably the best of the bunch, but when Beltran is on there are not many better players in the game. Problem with that, though, is that he is more often off than on. Nobody is going to hit home runs like Howard, who will get you 45+ a season by accident like he is doing this season. However, his game is nowhere near as well-rounded as Wright's. Reyes can do everything and is possibly the most exciting player in baseball, but Rollins is perhaps the most underrated player in the game.
To me it comes down to the two shortstops. Would I rather have Reyes or Rollins? If you asked me before the season I would have no doubt taken Reyes, but Rollins is quietly putting together one of the best offensive seasons ever by a National League shortstop this year. Plus he is just so consistent.
But if Phillies general manager Pat Gillick got a call from the Mets' Omar Minaya tomorrow and was offered Reyes for Rollins straight up, he would take the deal in a heartbeat. He'd be a fool not to.
So, since Reyes is 24 and Rollins will be 29 in November, I guess I would lean towards the Mets' trio.
It is real close, though.
<< Anderson, Kotchman spark Angels over Indians
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Garret Anderson finished with three RBI,
including a two-run homer, and set a new club record in the process while
Casey Kotchman's two-run double keyed a four-run fifth inning, as the Angels
defeate
<< Goats fight back to earn draw with United
Carson, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - CD Chivas USA and D.C. United both kept their
current unbeaten streaks intact after a 2-2 draw at The Home Depot Center in a
Major League Soccer fixture Thursday night.
Chivas is still unbeaten at home at 7
<< Allen, Brohm set records as eighth-ranked Louisville outscores MTSU
Louisville, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Anthony Allen set a school record with 275
rushing yards and scored twice, as eighth-ranked Louisville survived a
first-half scare and downed Middle Tennessee, 58-42, at Papa John's Cardinal
Stadium
<< Peyton's Place: Manning leads Colts over Saints in NFL opener
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning threw for 295 yards and
three touchdowns to lead the Indianapolis Colts over the New Orleans Saints,
41-10, at the RCA Dome in the NFL's season opener.
Manning completed 18-of-30 pas
Phils welcome Fish to South Philly >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Phillies have put their terrible road trip
behind them and will open a seven-game homestand tonight with the first of
three straight games versus the Florida Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies wen
Cubs open set with Pirates in Steel City >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Cubs hope a trip to Pittsburgh will solve their
recent woes, as they play the first of three straight games tonight against
the Pirates at PNC Park.
Chicago is now tied with Milwaukee atop the National League C
Jays try to keep slim postseason hopes alive in St. Pete >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Toronto Blue Jays still have a mathematical shot at the
playoffs and will open a three-game series against the AL East-rival Tampa Bay
Devil Rays at Tropicana Field.
Toronto is 6 1/2 games off the wild card lead and ha
Mets start nine-game homestand against Astros >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National League East-leading New York Mets had their
six-game winning streak stopped this week and will try get back on track when
they open a nine-game homestand with the first of three straight games versus
the Houston
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
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